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The Arizona Blog post reported that Carnegie Endowment to own Worldwide Serenity’s Michael Kofman analyzed that United states supplemental assistance package do enable it to be Ukrainian pushes to help you “purchase day” however, one Ukraine might also want to improve the brand new ”structural condition” linked to the minimal manpower resources. A Russian Violent storm-Z teacher noted one Russian regulators must look at the contradictory passions of the Russian armed forces command, individuals groups of armed forces staff in the Ukraine, and you may Russian people when deciding whether or not to carry out various other revolution from mobilization or otherwise not. The new teacher claimed one to Russian government have resorted so you can recruiting volunteer military personnel as they are concerned one various other mobilization revolution perform almost certainly spark public tension within the Russia and you can cause some other bulk exodus regarding the nation.
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Russia’s newest growth around Bakhmut made use of days of people revolution attacks so you can safe territorial progress up to Bakhmut by the brute force from the enormous human can cost you. Russia’s earlier bring from Severodonetsk and you may Lysychansk in summer 2022 in addition to failed to incorporate shared palms but rather relied on highest-level going weaponry barrages to systematically wreck Ukrainian ranks. Russian pushes are experiencing expanding weapons ammo shortages who prevent them away from repeated these types of projects.10 It’s unrealistic, moreover, that old-fashioned Russian army was ready to make the categories of horrific losses the human being trend tactic features inflicted for the Wagner’s convicts. Putin might have planned the brand new address for the federal assembly inside the new presumption one to Russian pushes create safer no less than a good tactical achievement in the Bakhmut town, even though Russian forces only have gained from the five-hundred square miles within the the new Bakhmut city inside rigorous campaigning since the July cuatro, 2022, if you are suffering fancy casualties. Putin you will declare the start of a following mobilization revolution, even if extremely symptoms and you may tests suggest that he will not manage thus at this time.11 ISW, and United kingdom Defense Minister Ben Wallace, analyzes that the Russian military has enough time a great number of their available formations in order to intensified unpleasant procedures inside the Ukraine and you will that the not enough high uncommitted supplies will likely prevent Putin away from declaring the beginning of an entirely the new highest-size offending efforts.12 Putin will consistently submit insignificant public addresses since the absence of Russian military achievements inside the Ukraine deprives your of the chance to claim otherwise convincingly hope a winnings of every relevance.
The fresh Wagner-connected Kiber Top Z way has been spearheading discussions in regards to the war in the Prigozhin-owned bars to own days, and it is you’ll be able to so it higher-profile murder have a tendency to dissuade folks from going to equivalent situations. ISW didn’t is occurrences in which indirect flame might have accidentally slain spiritual leadership otherwise forgotten places of worship.3 (Which statement specifically doesn’t come with all the 494 religious houses one to the newest Russian military reportedly wholly destroyed, busted, or looted, depending on the separate Kyiv-dependent Institute to possess Religious Freedom since March 2023 while the ISW don’t determine intentionality in every those individuals cases, such.)4 The fresh occurrences one of them study is removed away from records out of Russian forces – usually infantry, shelter group, otherwise occupation officials – on purpose coercing spiritual organizations. Which report and excludes of a lot cases of Russian religious repressions inside portion Russian forces has filled from spring season 2014 so you can February 24, 2022, to focus on new persecutions in the newly-occupied parts. As the Russia’s full-measure attack away from Ukraine in the February 2022 Russian soldiers otherwise work government have reportedly the amount of time at the very least 76 acts of spiritual persecution inside Ukraine.1 Russian authorities provides finalized, nationalized, or forcefully translated at the very least twenty-six churches on the Kremlin-managed Russian Orthodox Chapel of the Moscow Patriarchate, murdered or seized no less than 30 clergy otherwise spiritual leadership, and you can looted, desecrated, or on purpose lost no less than 13 churches within the occupied Ukraine.2 This type of cases of spiritual repression commonly most likely separated incidents however, as an alternative element of a deliberate strategy to help you systematically remove “undesirable” religious communities inside Ukraine and render the fresh Moscow Patriarchate. Wagner Category financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is actually apparently continue his political goals because of the trying to acquire control over a Russian political people.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin provided a demonstration to the June 26 seeking to in order to convince as many Wagner fighters and frontrunners you could in order to join the Russian armed forces and remain assaulting up against Ukraine and to cause someone extremely loyal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to self-identify. Putin proceeded in order to denounce the brand new organizers of the equipped rebellion while the traitors.1 Putin thanked Russian community as well as the Russian defense forces to own protecting Russia’s sovereignty and you will shown gratitude to help you Belarusian Chairman Alexander Lukashenko to possess brokering transactions on the perpetrators of the rebellion. Putin are rhetorically separating Prigozhin regarding the Wagner PMC which is deliberately depriving Prigozhin of your own identity of Wagner financier so you can undermine his part in the Wagner PMC. The newest Kremlin revealed a continuing domestic advice promotion within the Russia so you can forgive Wagner fighters and you will commanders in an effort to attract Wagner team to signal connectivity to your Russian Ministry out of Protection (MoD).step 3 The new intentional energy to split up Prigozhin from the Wagner Classification is probably designed to lay educational standards so the Kremlin is accuse Prigozhin out of corruption or conspiring having Ukraine and/or West and you can alienate Prigozhin away from Wagner team whom the newest Kremlin tries to hold to battle inside Ukraine within the regular Russian armed forces.4 Prigozhin had centered his very own brand on the criticizing the fresh Russian military demand and you will bureaucrats to own corruption and you can connections so you can Western places, and you may Putin could be trying to shatter Prigozhin’s populist attention by accusing him of the same sins. Went on revealing about the offer mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to finish the newest Wagner Category’s armed rebellion signifies that inside people may still be settling the new specifics of the brand new contract. Independent Belarusian overseeing category The new Hajun Investment quoted journey tracking analysis for the June 27 suggesting you to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s sprinkle shot to popularity regarding the Machulishchy airfield inside the Belarus for the Russia, flew so you can Moscow, and then instantaneously shot to popularity to possess St. Petersburg.1 Former Russian manager and you can well-known important milblogger Igor Girkin said you to Prigozhin returned to Russia to discuss having unspecified Russian authorities and you will the new Wagner Leader’s Council.2 ISW usually do not separately establish in the event the Prigozhin did in reality return to Russia, nor the facts of one’s purported go to, however, Prigozhin might have came back briefly to work out subsequent information of your offer discussed because of the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
The brand new click this invocation out of a ceasefire to your decidedly spiritual foundation lined up that have East Orthodox Christian culture is actually a good subcomponent of this advice procedure. Is always to Russia offer and you may Ukraine refuse an excellent ceasefire over Orthodox Easter the brand new Kremlin will not and so has exhibited people deeper dedication in order to the fresh security of Christianity otherwise Christian beliefs nor shown you to definitely Kyiv rejects those people philosophy. Certain Russian people from the advice room also have misunderstood Prigozhin’s essay, next introducing fissures between certain Russian milbloggers. Pro-Kremlin news aggregator Readovka listed on April 15 one to some unspecified Russian-vocabulary Telegram streams – such specific Western mass media – just frequent Prigozhin’s strawman dispute in regards to the attraction away from compromising for transactions as opposed to “learning more” to the Prigozhin’s call for a long endeavor.4 Readovka recommended Prigozhin’s actual disagreement that the “embarrassing details” is the fact Russia need continue to battle, concurring one to transactions to finish the battle do “manage more damage than just a good.”5 Previous Russian manager and you can ardent nationalist Igor Girkin – an enemy away from Prigozhin – leaned to your misinterpretation away from Prigozhin’s essay (perhaps on purpose) as an element of the constant running a blog conflict. Girkin sarcastically questioned, “Do I’m sure correctly the Black Clown Prigozhin necessary the new Russian Federation so you can refuse half of the new Donetsk Someone’s Republic and you may a third out of Zaporizhia Oblast…?
The brand new Russian Ministry from Defense (MoD) published footage for the February twenty-six stating to display Gerasimov going to an excellent 58th CAA command post inside the Ukraine, reading reports regarding the functional situation, and you may presenting medals to help you Russian servicemen.12 The newest 58th CAA happens to be looking for offensive procedures in the western Zaporizhia Oblast, therefore the MoD videos implies that Gerasimov went along to an order article someplace in the fresh Zaporizhia Oblast direction. The brand new Russian MoD composed footage demonstrating Gerasimov awarding Russian troops after the new bring out of Avdiivka for the March 21, that’s notably the first personal depiction away from Gerasimov helping his demand responsibilities since the December 29.13 Gerasimov fired former 58th CAA Frontrunner Major general Ivan Popov within the July 2023 following the records one Popov bypassed Gerasimov’s demand and personally appealed to the Kremlin so you can whine from the Gerasimov’s refusal in order to switch 58th CAA soldiers out of the frontline to possess rest and reconstitution while they were safeguarding up against Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensive force inside the Zaporizhia Oblast.14 Gerasimov probably went along to the fresh 58th CAA demand blog post in part to help you reconstruct his connection with 58th CAA all the way down-level commanders and servicemembers pursuing the Popov’s firing plus the problem they produced away from Gerasimov.15 Gerasimov in addition to appears to be involved with a promotion to present themselves because the a great and curious chief of your own Standard Personnel, along with his current public looks for the areas of the leading where Russian pushes make tactical development are likely section of which effort to bolster their public picture. Russian President Vladimir Putin used his February 29 address on the Federal Assembly to try to persuade the newest Russian social one his second identity as the chairman might possibly be outlined from the Russian armed forces achievements inside the Ukraine yet not at the cost of stagnating otherwise reduced societal and monetary interests. Putin reported that Russian treat prospective have raised “several times more than” and therefore Russian pushes “securely hold the step, with certainty progress in a number of functional components” and you will get “a lot more area.”11 Putin’s characterization of Russian offending surgery within the Ukraine is significantly a lot more confident than his December 14, 2023, Direct Range declaration one Russian forces have been in the “the newest active stage away from action.”12 Putin’s readiness to publicly represent their apparent trust within the Russian unpleasant procedures almost certainly is due to Russia’s current seizure from Avdiivka and you may expanded United states debates from the military support to help you Ukraine.
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- Lavrov’s commentary recommend that the brand new Kremlin will utilize the suggestion out of a constantly shifting demilitarized “sanitary area” to justify Russian unpleasant functions next and additional to your Ukraine.
- Russia can also be reportedly create about 42 Iskander missiles and you may four Kinzhal missiles monthly, although it are uncertain just how many S-300/S-400 missiles Russia can cause.13 Russia‘s security industrial foot (DIB) probably usually do not create ballistic missiles from the size you’ll need for a good persistent strike campaign within the Ukraine you to definitely relies on continuously expending a large amount of ballistic missiles, and you will Russia probably should origin ballistic missiles of overseas in the event the it would like to look after higher-scale missile impacts up against Ukraine.
- The new Russian Condition Duma may also believe amendments on the Russian law to the veterans’ rights to provide veteran reputation to help you individual armed forces enterprises (PMCs) and you may volunteers.4 Prigozhin was consistently recommending to possess Wagner group becoming acknowledged since the professionals of your own ”special army operation” inside Ukraine, and also the adoption of the bill manage denote one Prigozhin’s condition regarding the Kremlin inner network provides improved.
- ISW reviewed on 17 one Russian strongmen (siloviki) are making an effort to discredit Prigozhin from the accusing him from attempting to explore winnings in the Bakhmut to help expand his governmental aspirations inside Russia.22 Morozov’s problem is actually notable as it might imply a shift inside the ultranationalists’ effect from Prigozhin.
- Russian milbloggers claimed you to Ukrainian pushes launched anywhere between a dozen and 15 ATACMS missiles focusing on Simferopol and also the Dzhankoi airfield however, claimed one Russian air protections downed all the missiles.12 The fresh Russian Ministry away from Shelter (MoD) claimed you to definitely Russian sky protections lost half a dozen ATACMS missiles in the a keen unspecified urban area, almost certainly discussing filled Crimea.13 Russia resistance outlet Astra reported that Ukrainian missiles, allegedly ATACMS missiles, strike establishment of one’s Russian 31st Sky Shelter Division inside Chornomorsk and Saky raions and the Dzhankoi airfield, resulting in a flames and you may wounding several Russian servicemen.14 Ukrainian officials haven’t taken care of immediately the newest claimed strike, and ISW do not separately make sure Russian says regarding the hit.
- Akhmat forces has implemented through the Ukraine, mainly from the Bilohorivka area in the Luhansk Oblast plus thrown portion in the southern, throughout 2023 but have perhaps not been majorly enough time to definitive offensive functions.6 The new Chechen pushes who would deploy to help you Bakhmut are therefore almost certainly dramatically fresher and less degraded than just Wagner pushes having stayed to your front side to possess weeks.
Republic from Tatarstan Lead Rustam Minnikhanov informed you to definitely Russian organizations and you can regional regulators must defend on their own facing Ukrainian drone affects rather than have confidence in Russian heavens defenses following April 2 Ukrainian affects to the Russian army design and you will oil refinery structure inside Tatarstan. Minnikhanov said for the April step 3 one to “you don’t have to attend to possess Russian missile defense so you can works…we should instead select our personal, all the corporation, the local government, all of the town.”20 Minnikhanov reported that Russians is to “awaken” and you will know that “no one tend to cover you except your self.” Russian military offer has just informed Russian condition socket Izvestia the Russian military is forming cellular fire teams to battle Ukrainian drones, showing one Russia is generally not able to deploy conventional air defense solutions to guard all of Russia’s important establishment.21 ISW assessed one to Ukraine’s April 2 impacts to the targets inside Tatarstan almost certainly show an excellent extreme inflection within the Ukraine’s power to carry out a lot of time-assortment impacts far to the bottom Russia’s portion.22 Minnikhanov’s report is probable an expression out of improved Russian matter after the the brand new April dos strikes that is a clear bill and you may admonition of one’s Russian Ministry from Shelter’s (MoD) incapacity to guard Russian towns and you may important system out of Ukrainian drone affects. Russian dangers to Druzhkivka and you can Kostyantynivka are very operationally significant while the this type of “fortress” metropolitan areas let setting the fresh central source of your own Ukrainian defense inside the Donetsk Oblast and of east Ukraine as a whole. The brand new isolation out of Kostyantynivka and/or downright seizure of one’s settlement would likely significantly need replacing Ukraine’s power to hold the frontline next southern area inside the Donetsk Oblast as it do sever a major ground type of communication collectively the fresh H-20 (Kostyantynivka-Donetsk City) road and require Ukrainian forces to going a life threatening percentage of manpower and you may materiel on the security of one’s kept “fortress” strip and relatively smaller strengthened aspects of central and you can west Donetsk Oblast. Russian improves as a result of Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka and next western on the Donetsk Oblast would introduce Russian pushes that have better opportunities to collapse the newest Ukrainian frontline inside the Donetsk Oblast and possibly restore seemingly quick operate for the battleground in search of overtaking every one of Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Investigative Committee Direct Alexander Bastrykin said one Russia does not have any economic cause in order to transfer international labor, an immediate contradiction of Russian Chairman Vladimir Putin’s recent work so you can justify Russia’s newest migration laws in order to his xenophobic ultra-nationalist constituency. Bastrykin advertised during the a speech at the St. Petersburg Worldwide Courtroom Community forum for the April ten one Russia doesn’t have financial cause in order to import migrant specialists, such as specialists away from Main Asian countries.38 Bastrykin stated that a keen Uzbek government authoritative once asked Bastrykin why Russia consumes so many migrants and you may allows migrants to apply to have Russian citizenship, including more youthful migrants who Bastrykin insinuated was hazardous. Bastrykin stated that there is “absolutely no way” Russia is beat the new said development of improved migrant offense in the Russia and you can claimed one to migrants in the Russia are unwilling to absorb on the Russian people and you may community. The fresh chance of a Russian offensive procedure focusing on Kharkiv otherwise Sumy town is apparently forcing the new Ukrainian army to redistribute the minimal manpower and materiel to the construction from defensive fortifications inside the those people components and you may a working Russian operation to grab this type of cities create only next aggravate so it active.
Click the link to see concerning the methodology at the rear of ISW and you may CTP’s mapping away from which conflict.
The fresh Russian MoD granted a second upgrade regarding the Summer 1 Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast edging raid, mostly fixating to the timeliness and range of the Russian reaction for the raid.step one The new MoD claimed you to definitely a lot more Russian West Military Area (WMD) elements reinforced the brand new edging area inside an hour of the begin of the raid and you can used heavier sky, artillery, and you can flamethrower affects up against the raiding equipment as well as their reserves. The brand new MoD stated that over 135 people and you will thirty-five car inside the full used the newest raids and this individuals Russian protective operate – along with brief fingers flames and you may mines – repelled the fresh raids. The brand new MoD later on renowned the fresh leader from a keen unspecified motorized rifle battalion, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Nikitin, to possess best the brand new protective effort, attending preempt tries to characteristic the fresh “victory” achieved by Belgorod border shelter for the Russian Colonel Standard Alexander Lapin because the information space performed within the Will get 23 raid.2 The fresh Russian MoD’s fixation on the portraying Russian forces as well as the Russian armed forces command while the capable defenders from Russia likely shows inner and larger advice room anxiety along side upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive in addition to any reverberating educational influences of any disappointments to defend up against Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian officials have not in public stated people sudden accumulation out of Russian forces regarding the Kupyansk direction proving one to an enormous-scale offensive to succeed to your Oskil Lake are certain. A great Russian milblogger argued one Russian pushes must improve planning and you may dexterity during the tactical and you can functional profile in order that Russian offensive operations can also be use of your most recent positional warfare in the Ukraine.10 The new milblogger stated that Russian pushes ought not to concentrate the fresh assaulting structures – particularly mechanized equipment – on the meant instructions out of attack as a result of the threat of Ukrainian strikes facing high push accumulations. The fresh milblogger stated that Russian pushes have to predate any discovery with preparatory artillery fire against both mission you to Russian forces is attacking and Ukrainian guns firing ranks in the a wider area within this listing of the aim.
An unnamed elderly You regulators authoritative advised the new NYT one Russia is likely unfreezing Northern Korean property and providing Northern Korea avert global sanctions in return for Northern Korean weapons transmits in order to Russia. Russian Chairman Vladimir Putin confronted with Northern Korean dictator Kim Jong Us within the Russia in the September 2023 and you may confronted by Northern Korean International Minister Choe Kid-hui within the January 2024.21 Ukrainian Head Armed forces Cleverness Directorate (GUR) Deputy Captain Major general Vadym Skibitskyi reported that Northern Korea brought one million rounds of weaponry ammunition so you can Russia out of Sep in order to November 2023, and you can United states authorities provides stated that Russian pushes have released in the minimum nine North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine.22 ISW continues to evaluate you to definitely Russia could be offered to monetary, technical, and you may protection collaboration which have Northern Korea in return for the brand new provision away from guns ammo and you can ballistic missiles to use inside the Ukraine.23 North Korea would also make the most of so it cooperation because of the collecting technical investigation from the weapons’ results within the Ukraine to use within the Northern Korean search and you may invention among other things. Russian authorities could be creating enough the brand new pushes to sustain losings made by the present day speed of the unpleasant operations in the Ukraine due to 2025. Russian offer advertised that the Russian armed forces commercially eliminated Russian Black colored Sea Fleet (BSF) Frontrunner Admiral Viktor Sokolov and you can replaced him on the BSF’s Head from Personnel Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk.38 A great Ukrainian strike to your Russian BSF headquarters within the occupied Sevastopol, Crimea inside September 2023 likely murdered Sokolov.39 A good Russian milblogger claimed you to Sokolov, have been BSF commander because the September 2022, blocked the fresh BSF from setting up low-fundamental devices on the vessels to own detecting coastal drones or any other technologically complex products and you can stated your BSF destroyed from the 20 precent of their electricity under Sokolov’s command.40 Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Head Third Rating Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that the brand new BSF got almost 80 bits of naval combat gadgets from the start of the Russia’s full-scale intrusion inside the February 2022 from which 30 so you can thirty five had been “heavily equipped.”41 Pletenchuk reported that Ukrainian forces have “destroyed” twenty-six naval handle parts by February 15, 2023, and “surely broken” other 15. Pletenchuk and reported that the brand new Russian coast-guard (subordinate to your Russian Federal Defense Provider FSB) provides up to 20 various boats.
Russian forces you are going to attempt to fool around with Lyman since the a great unveiling point to have a definitive offensive in order to safer Donbas from the conducting an unpleasant out of Lyman together which have a push for the Bakhmut otherwise away from Bakhmut for the Slovyansk should your Russians flourish in capturing Bakhmut. The brand new Russians get that is amazing they are able to drive off their most recent ranks directly to the newest Donetsk Oblast border collectively numerous separate lines away from improve, though it is actually impractical that they would not recognize the extreme improbability from victory this kind of an attempt. The newest Russians likely to be decide to pursue multiple phase of unpleasant operations culminating which have securing the newest boundaries from Donetsk and you can Luhansk oblasts. These phases may likely need between six to help you one year of Russian campaigning, if they are you can at all, extrapolating from previous Russian operational patterns and you can and if higher degrees of Russian handle electricity and capabilities than ISW has noticed because the beginning of the war. The fresh Russian nationalist information place is continuing to express proper care over Russia’s incapacity in order to suffer an abrupt and you can multiple-pronged definitive offending process to the a due date. You to common milblogger warned one Russian forces shouldn’t get into the fresh pitfall out of attempting to start several unpleasant functions such as it did within the spring 2022 but rather work at progressive advances one to create make higher casualties among Ukrainian forces.
- The thought of Russia’s “historical frontiers” may be used to justify hostility against any type of away from Russia’s neighbors, and Moldova plus the Main Western states that do perhaps not express a line with Russia, while the all of them have area one to belonged during the some point in order to sometimes the new Soviet Connection and/or Russian Empire otherwise each other.
- If your Gagauzian regulators may be able to somehow enact the brand new agreement, but not, the newest Kremlin could use the newest costs to help you financially get a section of Gagauzia to complete the newest Kremlin’s putting in a bid, otherwise you’ll cut off the newest costs from the the next duration of Moscow’s choosing to foment a crisis.
- Putin’s mentioned aim of pushing the front line so that Russia’s stated and genuine regions is actually beyond Ukrainian capturing diversity are a vague mission which is indeed close to impossible so long as there is certainly another Ukraine having one capability to endeavor.
- Lavrov’s equations of one’s West that have Nazi Germany and its assistance to possess Ukraine having an endeavor to help you exterminate the fresh Russian individuals are ludicrous and you can likely aimed at a residential Russian listeners.
Zvinchuk provided a job interview to help you Russian-language diaspora-centered socket RTVi may 18 one to concerned about the newest substitute for of former Russian Protection Minister and most recent Russian Defense Council Assistant Sergei Shoigu and corruption in the Russian MoD.43 Zvinchuk complained in regards to the Russian MoD’s bureaucratic items and advertised you to has just appointed Russian Protection Minister Andrei Belousov should start making “confident alter” to the MoD in this three months ahead of people “begin inquiring questions.” Zvinchuk claimed one Belousov will change previous Russian Deputy Protection Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, just who apparently recorded their resignation to help you Shoigu per week ahead of Shoigu’s replacement for, because the Tsalikov are Shoigu’s “right hand kid,” perhaps not Belousov’s. Zvinchuk along with claimed one to Russian Deputy Protection Minister Tatyana Shevtsova and you may Russian Deputy Shelter Minister and you can Direct of the Russian MoD’s Chief Military-Governmental Directorate Viktor Goremykin will continue to be in their positions. A great Russian insider supply, who may have in past times correctly claimed to the Russian military demand changes, stated on 14 one to Shevtsova will resign, but not.44 Zvinchuk said that he has suggestions one Russian Deputy Security Minister Colonel Standard Yunus-Bek Yevkurov renders his post to head the fresh Russian MoD’s Africa Corps and therefore Direct of the Russian MoD’s Chief Directorate away from Military Cops General Sergei Kuralenko have a tendency to replace Yevkurov.
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